India
oi-Prakash KL
Global crude oil prices remain elevated despite a late-week pullback, as geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to dictate market sentiment and supply concerns.
Oil futures declined on Friday after reports emerged that Iran had sent a fresh proposal to resume negotiations with the United States through Pakistani mediators. According to Iran’s state news agency, the move could potentially ease the prolonged conflict and reopen diplomatic channels. The development triggered a mild correction in oil markets, which had rallied sharply in recent weeks.
Despite a dip following potential Iran-US negotiation news, crude oil prices remain elevated, driven by West Asian geopolitical tensions. India is considering revising domestic petrol, diesel, and LPG prices after a prolonged freeze strained oil marketing companies.
Brent crude futures for July settled at $108.17 per barrel, down $2.23 or 2.02 per cent, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $101.94, falling $3.13 or 2.98 per cent. Despite the dip, both benchmarks remained on track for weekly gains of nearly 3 per cent, underscoring the underlying strength in prices.
The recent volatility comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz – a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of global oil supply passes. Iran’s continued blockade of the strait, coupled with US naval actions restricting Iranian crude exports, has heightened fears of supply disruptions. Analysts note that even the risk of prolonged instability in the region is enough to keep prices elevated.
The rally has been steep. Brent crude touched $126.41 per barrel earlier in the week – its highest level since March 2022 – before retreating. Over the past two months, crude prices have surged by more than 50 per cent at one point, reflecting the scale of the global energy shock.
A broader look at energy markets shows mixed trends. Murban crude fell 3.94 per cent to $103.76, while the OPEC basket rose 1.69 per cent to $109.44. The Indian basket climbed 3.27 per cent to $116.52 per barrel, indicating sustained cost pressures for domestic refiners. Natural gas prices edged up marginally, while gasoline and heating oil saw slight declines.
| Futures & Indexes | Last | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 101.94 | -3.13 | |
| Brent Crude | 108.17 | -2.23 | |
| Murban Crude | 103.76 | -4.26 | |
| Natural Gas | 2.780 | +0.013 | |
| Gasoline | 3.595 | -0.020 | |
| Heating Oil | 3.946 | -0.135 | |
| WTI Midland | 106.18 | -2.83 | |
| Mars | 119.96 | -6.12 | |
| Opec Basket | 109.44 | +1.82 | |
| DME Oman | 106.22 | +12.22 | |
| Mexican Basket | 107.52 | +5.75 | |
| Indian Basket | 116.52 | +3.69 | |
| Urals | 112.05 | -4.01 | |
| Western Canadian Select | 92.72 | -1.81 | |
| AECO C natural gas | 1.010 | +0.130 | |
| Dubai | 105.70 | +0.01 | |
| Brent Weighted Average | 117.48 | +1.24 | |
| Louisiana Light | 111.22 | +6.27 | |
| Domestic Swt. @ Cushing | 101.55 | -1.81 | |
| Giddings | 95.30 | -1.81 | |
| ANS West Coast | 122.76 | +6.79 | |
| Gulf Coast HSFO | 84.28 | +0.01 | |
| Ethanol | 2.015 | -0.010 | |
| Dutch TTF Natural Gas | 14.85 | +0.00 | |
| LNG Japan/Korea Marker | 16.91 | -0.06 |
For India, the key concern is whether sustained high crude prices will eventually translate into higher retail fuel costs. Petrol and diesel prices have remained largely unchanged since 2022, even as global oil prices fluctuated sharply. This price freeze has helped contain inflation but has strained the finances of oil marketing companies (OMCs), which have absorbed rising input costs.
Reports suggest that the government is now considering a revision in fuel prices. Petrol and diesel rates could increase by ₹4-5 per litre, while domestic LPG cylinder prices may rise by ₹40-50. If implemented, this would mark the first significant hike in nearly four years.
Such a move presents a delicate balancing act. While higher fuel prices would improve the financial health of OMCs, they could also fuel inflation and dampen economic growth. The impact of the global energy surge has already been substantial – diesel prices globally rose by 119 per cent in April compared to February levels, petrol by 69 per cent, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) has doubled.
At present, domestic fuel prices vary across cities. Diesel is priced at ₹90.01 per litre in Mumbai, ₹91.81 in Kolkata, ₹92.38 in Chennai, and ₹90.98 in Bengaluru, while remaining below ₹90 per litre in Delhi.
In the near term, oil markets are likely to remain volatile, with geopolitical developments continuing to outweigh traditional supply-demand dynamics. For consumers and policymakers alike, the trajectory of crude prices will be closely watched, as it holds significant implications for inflation, fiscal stability, and economic recovery.
