North Texas has been going through a remarkable dry stretch over the last several weeks, with Dallas-Fort Worth recently hitting 63 days without measurable rainfall.
However, the region’s weather is likely to change course this winter, because of the strengthening 2026 El Nino, which is expected to bring wetter conditions to the southern US.
When will El Nino hit and how long will it last?
The developing El Nino is now the strongest on record, according to scientists monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures, as per the BBC.
This year’s El Nino has a greater than 90% chance of being a very strong event, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s latest update.
The 2026 El Nino has been developing throughout the summer and is “firmly established,” according to the World Meteorological Organization. Sea surface temperatures are expected to peak by October or November
Forecasters with the World Meteorological Organization said in early September that El Nino likely will last through February. However, according to a September 14 Climate Prediction Center report, forecasters say El Nino could persist through March or even May 2027, as per Dallas News.
Also read: Super El Nino winter weather forecast: What December, January and February could bring across the US
What does this mean for Texas this November and December?
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s latest three-month precipitation outlook, the southern US, including North Texas, is expected to get more rain and snow than usual as winter approaches, as per Dallas News.
NOAA says the southern US usually gets more precipitation than normal from around November to April. Meteorological winter starts on December 1 and ends in February.
A stronger El Nino can increase the chances of severe weather and wetter conditions in the southern US. This means North Texas could see more rain or snow this winter, depending on temperatures, because of El Nino.
The last rainy winter in Dallas-Fort Worth was during the 2023 El Nino. The wetter conditions continued into spring 2024.
Also read: NOAA winter weather forecast map: Which US states could see more rain and snow this year?
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern that usually develops every two to seven years. It can last for about nine to 12 months, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
It happens when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. This can change air circulation and the jet stream, which can affect weather patterns around the world.
Trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the Pacific can become weaker or even change direction during El Nino. This allows warm water to move east. The ocean then releases more heat into the atmosphere, which can raise global temperatures and change weather patterns around the world.
