International
oi-Prakash KL
Benjamin Netanyahu could face another political battle to remain Israel’s prime minister if his right-wing bloc fails to secure the numbers needed to form the next government. Even if his Likud party emerges as the largest party, that alone would not guarantee him another term in office.
With neither major political camp projected to command a clear majority in the Knesset, coalition negotiations could determine who leads the country next. Netanyahu, who has spent nearly 19 years as prime minister across different terms, has survived several political crises. However, a fractured mandate could leave him with limited options.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces potential challenges forming Israel’s next government if his bloc doesn’t secure the required 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset, necessitating coalition negotiations with other parties.
Preliminary figures cited in the election projections show Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc winning around 53 seats, against 48 for the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot. Arab-led parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, could hold a significant number of the remaining seats, making their position crucial to government formation.
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 members. A government needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers to secure a parliamentary majority. If neither bloc can reach that number, the coming days could see intense negotiations, attempts to win over rival lawmakers and the possibility of another election.
Netanyahu’s Options If He Falls Short Of A Majority
1. Try To Win Over Smaller Parties And Rival Lawmakers
Netanyahu’s first option would be to negotiate with smaller parties that could help his bloc reach the 61-seat threshold. He could also attempt to persuade lawmakers from rival right-wing or centrist parties to support his government.
Such negotiations could involve cabinet positions, policy concessions or agreements on sharing power. Smaller religious and right-wing factions could prove particularly important if their support is enough to bridge the gap.
However, persuading opposition lawmakers to abandon their alliances would not be easy, particularly if their campaigns have centred on preventing Netanyahu from returning to power.
2. Negotiate A National Unity Government
Another possibility is a national unity government involving parties from outside Netanyahu’s traditional right-wing alliance.
Under such an arrangement, Netanyahu could offer senior cabinet positions or agree to a power-sharing deal, potentially including an agreement to rotate the prime minister’s post.
Israel has previously experimented with this model. In 2020, Netanyahu and Benny Gantz agreed to a rotation arrangement, although the government eventually collapsed before completing its full term.
A similar deal would face a lot of hurdles as the Opposition leaders have repeatedly opposed serving under Netanyahu, with his ongoing corruption trial among the issues complicating the prospect of an agreement.
3. Seek Support From Parties Outside His Coalition
Netanyahu could also explore arrangements that allow his government to survive without having 61 lawmakers formally committed to the coalition.
In a minority-government arrangement, parties outside the government could agree to abstain during key parliamentary votes or provide limited support on confidence motions and other crucial matters.
Arab party Ra’am could become part of the political calculations, although any such arrangement would be controversial among Netanyahu’s right-wing allies.
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, participated in the coalition formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021, demonstrating that an Arab-led party could play a decisive role in Israeli government formation. Netanyahu himself previously explored the possibility of securing its support.
However, a government dependent on outside backing could struggle to pass legislation and remain stable.
4. Remain Caretaker Prime Minister If Talks Fail
If Netanyahu and his opponents fail to assemble a viable coalition, Israel could face another prolonged period of political uncertainty.
The president plays a key role in the government-formation process by assigning a mandate to a candidate considered capable of forming a government. The leader of the largest party may have an advantage, but the decision is not automatic.
If no candidate succeeds within the prescribed process, the country could move towards another election under the applicable constitutional procedures.
Netanyahu would not necessarily leave office immediately if his bloc failed to secure a majority. An outgoing government generally continues in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed.
Israel experienced repeated elections and prolonged coalition deadlocks between 2019 and 2022, showing how difficult it can be to break a parliamentary stalemate.
5. Make Way For An Opposition-Led Government
Netanyahu’s hold on power could end if an opposition leader manages to assemble a coalition with the support of enough lawmakers.
Eisenkot and other opposition leaders would need to reconcile their differences and agree on a common governing arrangement. The numbers held by smaller parties, including Arab-led factions, could prove decisive.
However, opposition unity is not guaranteed. Eisenkot has previously expressed reservations about forming a government with Ra’am and the Palestinian nationalist Joint List, which could complicate efforts to build a broader anti-Netanyahu coalition.
If an alternative government is successfully formed, Netanyahu would have to leave the prime minister’s office and could move into opposition politics.
6. Face Pressure Within Likud To Step Aside
A failure to form a government could also trigger questions about Netanyahu’s leadership within his own Likud party.
At 77, Netanyahu remains a dominant figure in Israeli politics. However, another unsuccessful attempt to secure a parliamentary majority could intensify internal criticism and prompt rivals to question whether the party needs a new leader to build a more viable coalition.
Can Netanyahu Still Return To Power?
Yes. Falling short of a parliamentary majority would not automatically end Netanyahu’s political career or prevent him from forming the next government.
His immediate priority would be to determine whether smaller parties or individual lawmakers could help him reach the required numbers. If that fails, he could explore a unity arrangement or attempt to secure outside support.
But if opposition parties overcome their differences and build a viable alternative, Netanyahu could lose office despite his party finishing ahead of individual rivals.
The key question is not simply which party wins the most seats, but which political camp can assemble the support needed to govern. In a closely divided Knesset, coalition arithmetic could prove more important than the headline result.
