Chennai
oi-Ashish Rana
Tamil Nadu may be staring at a political moment that could rewrite its electoral history. If the Axis My India exit poll projections hold on counting day, actor-turned-politician Vijay could emerge as the next Chief Minister of the state, marking the arrival of a powerful new pole in Tamil Nadu politics.
According to Axis My India exit polls, actor Vijay’s party TVK is projected to win 98-120 seats in Tamil Nadu, potentially making him the third actor-Chief Minister after MGR and Jayalalithaa, rivalling the DMK.
More significantly, if Vijay does go on to form the government, he would become the third major Tamil film star to rule Tamil Nadu as Chief Minister, joining the towering legacies of M G Ramachandran (MGR) and J Jayalalithaa.
For decades, Tamil Nadu politics has been deeply intertwined with cinema, but only a select few actors have successfully converted screen superstardom into sustained political power. Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), if the exit poll numbers are accurate, could now revive that tradition in spectacular fashion.
Exit Poll Shows Vijay As A Serious CM Contender
According to the Axis My India exit poll, Vijay’s TVK has been projected to win 98 to 120 seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly, placing it neck-and-neck with the ruling DMK-led alliance, which is estimated to secure 92 to 110 seats. The AIADMK-BJP alliance has been projected much lower at 22 to 32 seats.
That is not just a respectable debut. It is a direct entry into the centre of power.
The vote share numbers make the story even more striking. TVK is projected at around 35 per cent vote share, which is on par with the DMK-led bloc, while the AIADMK-led alliance trails significantly at roughly 23 per cent. If these projections translate into actual results, TVK could either become the single largest party, emerge as the kingmaker in a fractured verdict, or position itself as the most formidable challenger to Tamil Nadu’s traditional Dravidian giants.
In the leadership race too, Vijay appears to have surged ahead. The exit poll projects him as the most preferred choice for Chief Minister with 37 per cent support, narrowly ahead of incumbent M K Stalin, who is estimated at 35 per cent. For a political newcomer contesting his first major Assembly election, that is a remarkable indicator of public traction.
Why Vijay’s Rise Is Being Compared To MGR
Axis My India chairperson Pradeep Gupta made perhaps the most politically loaded observation of the night when he compared Vijay’s rise to that of M G Ramachandran in Tamil Nadu and N T Rama Rao in Andhra Pradesh.
That comparison is not casual. In South Indian politics, these are not just names. They are templates of cinematic charisma turning into mass political legitimacy.
The exit poll suggests Vijay’s support is being powered heavily by the youth vote. TVK is projected to have received:
- 68 per cent support among first-time voters aged 18 to 19
- 59 per cent among voters aged 20 to 29
- 45 per cent among the 30 to 39 age group
This suggests that Vijay is not merely attracting fans. He appears to be mobilising a generation that is looking for political change.
The survey also indicates that the word “change” has become central to TVK’s pitch. Around 35 per cent of all voters reportedly cited change as their primary reason, and among TVK supporters, that figure reportedly jumps to 77 per cent. That means Vijay’s appeal is not just personality-driven, but also tied to anti-incumbency and the hunger for a new alternative.
If Vijay Wins, He Joins An Elite List Of Actor-CMs In Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu has had a long and unique relationship with cinema. Film stars have shaped public imagination, influenced ideology and campaigned for political movements. But when it comes to actually becoming Chief Minister and commanding mass power, only two actor-politicians have truly defined the state’s history:
- M G Ramachandran (MGR)
- J Jayalalithaa
If Vijay becomes Chief Minister, he would become the third major actor from Tamil cinema to lead the state, reviving one of the most iconic political traditions in India.
Some lists also mention V N Janaki Ramachandran, who briefly served as Chief Minister in 1988 for 23 days. While she was indeed an actress and did hold the office, Tamil Nadu’s long-term actor-led political legacy is overwhelmingly built around MGR and Jayalalithaa because both converted cinema popularity into durable electoral dominance and mass welfare politics. Vijay, if he crosses the line, would belong to that larger and far more consequential category.
MGR: The Superstar Who Changed Tamil Nadu Politics Forever
No discussion on actors in Tamil Nadu politics can begin anywhere else.
M G Ramachandran, popularly known as MGR, was not just a film icon. He was a cultural phenomenon. His on-screen persona as a protector of the poor, a man of justice and a champion of the underprivileged merged almost seamlessly with his political image.
After rising through the DMK, MGR broke away and founded the AIADMK in 1972. Many at the time saw it as a risky gamble. But within five years, he had achieved what few thought possible. In 1977, he led the AIADMK to power and became Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
MGR remained in office until his death in 1987, winning repeated mandates and building one of the strongest personal political brands in Indian history. His governance style blended welfare populism with emotional mass appeal. Schemes like the nutritious noon meal programme deepened his connection with poor and lower-income families, especially women and children.
Most importantly, MGR proved that a film star in Tamil Nadu could become more than a campaign mascot. He could become the central axis of power.
That is why every actor who enters Tamil Nadu politics is eventually measured against him. And that is why Pradeep Gupta’s comparison of Vijay to MGR carries such weight.
Jayalalithaa: From Leading Lady To Iron-Willed Leader
If MGR created the template, J Jayalalithaa perfected the second chapter of Tamil Nadu’s actor-politics story.
Jayalalithaa was already a major star in Tamil cinema before entering politics, and she had appeared in several films opposite MGR. After his death, the AIADMK went through intense internal turmoil. Yet over time, Jayalalithaa emerged as the undisputed heir to MGR’s political legacy.
In 1991, she became Chief Minister for the first time and went on to dominate Tamil Nadu politics for decades, alternating in power with the DMK. Across multiple terms, she built a formidable personality cult and reshaped welfare politics with a brand of governance that blended centralised authority with mass outreach.
Her tenure saw the rise of the famous “Amma” welfare model, which included schemes and subsidised services that became deeply associated with her personal political identity. Like MGR, Jayalalithaa turned cinematic recognition into emotional voter loyalty, but she did so in a far more combative and institutionalised political environment.
Together, MGR and Jayalalithaa created the two most enduring examples of actor-led rule in Tamil Nadu.
Vijay’s Challenge Is Bigger Than Stardom
While the exit poll gives Vijay a dramatic opening, the real test remains counting day. Tamil Nadu has a history of producing surprises, and exit polls do not always get the state right.
Still, what makes this moment significant is that TVK is not being projected as a fringe disruptor or a spoiler. The numbers suggest it has emerged as a parallel political force with support cutting across caste groups, urban and rural voters, OBC and SC communities, minority segments and the youth demographic.
That broad-based appeal matters.
Tamil Nadu has long been dominated by the DMK vs AIADMK framework, even when personalities changed. If TVK’s projected performance holds, Vijay would not simply be winning seats. He would be breaking the two-party rhythm that has defined the state for decades.
And if he actually becomes Chief Minister, the symbolism would be immense. It would mean Tamil Nadu has once again turned to the silver screen for a leader at a time of political churn, just as it did in the eras of MGR and Jayalalithaa.
A Historic Moment, If The Exit Poll Holds
For now, the Axis My India exit poll offers only a possibility, not a verdict. But it is a possibility loaded with history.
If Vijay does go on to form the government, it will not just be the story of a debutant shocking established parties. It will be the return of one of Tamil Nadu’s most distinctive political traditions: the rise of a film superstar to the highest office in the state.
And if that happens, Vijay will not just become Chief Minister. He will enter a rare club that includes only the biggest names in Tamil Nadu’s political and cinematic history, standing in the long shadow of MGR and Jayalalithaa, while opening a new chapter of his own.
