India
oi-Madhuri Adnal
The counting of votes for Bankipur bypoll in Bihar is underway. The assembly constituency is mainly witnessing a three-cornered contest between the ruling BJP, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party. A former election strategist, Kishor is contesting his first election after launching the Jan Suraaj Party a few years ago.
The BJP has fielded youth wing leader Neeraj Kumar Sinha from the seat it has held without interruption since 1995, back when the constituency was called Patna West.
Vote counting for the Bihar Bankipur bypoll is underway, featuring BJP, RJD, and Jan Suraaj. An opinion poll projects BJP ahead (44.9%) of Jan Suraaj (33.8%) and RJD (17.8%), despite a low 34.24% voter turnout recorded on July 30.
Voting was held on July 30, and the constituency recorded a low voter turnout of 34.24 per cent. According to the Election Commission (EC), this marked a decline of more than seven percentage points from the 41.45 per cent turnout recorded in the Assembly elections held in November last year.
The Bankipur seat fell vacant after BJP national president Nitin Nabin vacated the seat upon entering the Rajya Sabha. He had served as the constituency’s MLA for almost 20 years, while his family has remained politically dominant there for over three decades.
For the BJP, Bankipur is a prestige battle to preserve a long-held bastion. Prashant Kishor, after years of crafting election strategies for others, it is a chance to prove that Jan Suraaj can establish itself as Bihar’s third political force after drawing a blank in the 2025 Assembly polls. The RJD, on the other hand, will be watching closely to see whether its traditional Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) arithmetic continues to hold or is beginning to lose its electoral edge.
Meanwhile, an opinion poll conducted by VoteVibe suggests that the saffron party remains the frontrunner in Bankipur seat although Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj appears to have been emerged as the principal challenger, pushing the RJD into third place.
As per the opinion poll, the BJP is projected to secure 44.9% of the vote, comfortably ahead of Jan Suraaj at 33.8%, while the RJD is projected to secure 17.8%. The trend marks a significant departure from the electoral picture seen in the 2025 Bihar Assembly polls.
The biggest gain appears to be for Jan Suraaj, whose projected 33.8% vote share in Bankipur is far higher than its 4.97% statewide performance in the 2025 Assembly polls. At the same time, the BJP is projected to lose ground, with its vote share dropping from 63.2% to 44.9%.
The biggest loser, according to the opinion poll, appears to be the RJD, who appears to have suffered the steepest setback, with the poll survey projecting its vote share to fall from 29.8% in the 2025 Assembly election to 17.8%.
That also explains why the BJP has gone all out in Bankipur. Bankipur has been one of the party’s strongest bastions and is closely associated with Nitin Nabin’s political career and losing it would not only mean the end to a decades-long winning streak but also carry symbolic weight, dealing a blow to the stature of the BJP’s national president while raising questions about the party’s grip on one of its safest seats.
