Perhaps because I do interviews, I tend to think of developments in terms of the questions they raise. I am aware the process leads to a certain scepticism or, even, cynicism, but it also gets you to the core issues faster. So, what are the questions we should ask about the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, concluded on August 7? Let’s see if the questions I ask are of help.
The Mecca pact seeks to combine Türkiye’s military production infrastructure, Saudi Arabia’s financial strength and Pakistan’s nuclear armoury. The agreement states that an armed attack on one would be considered an attack on all. However, the three countries have also declared that their pact is not targeted at any specific country. It’s meant to provide collective deterrence.
The first question is who would that deterrence be directed at? In Saudi Arabia’s case, it must be Israel and Iran. For the Turks, it is bound to be Israel and its predatory behaviour in West Asia. For Pakistan, the key focus is, undoubtedly, India. We must not lose sight of this fact.
So, has this defence pact put India on the back foot? Let’s examine this more closely. India has a tense and difficult relationship with Pakistan. Now that Pakistan has both Saudi Arabia and Türkiye as defence allies, has that strengthened its hand? The answer to this question will answer the earlier one.
Let’s first approach the matter in terms of Kashmir and terror. Operation Sindoor, as the government has repeatedly said, has not ended. It’s only on pause. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also said India will respond militarily to any future terror attacks originating in Pakistan. But now, after this defence pact, will India have to think very carefully of how it responds?
Perhaps India’s response to the Red Fort attack of November provides a hint. That happened two months after Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence agreement on September 17, 2025. Is this why India was muted and restrained?
The second concern is could this embolden terror groups in Pakistan such as the Lashkar, Jaish and Resistance Front? Might they be more willing to carry out terror attacks knowing India will have to carefully weigh its response? I guess this probably depends more on Pakistan’s confidence in its new relationship with Washington. If that’s emboldened Islamabad sufficiently, it could lead to a greater willingness to unleash terror.
There is, however, another sense in which the pact has strengthened Pakistan’s hand. It has deepened its influence in West Asia. Earlier, there were reports that both Kuwait and Qatar were considering their own defence pact with Islamabad. Now there’s speculation Egypt might want to join. All of this will expand Pakistan’s influence in the region.
As one of our most wise former foreign secretaries, Shyam Saran, told me, any rise in Pakistan’s influence and military profile has to be a matter of concern for India.
A third issue is the impact on the nine million-strong Indian diaspora in West Asia. The single largest section is in Saudi Arabia. Might the three-country pact have implications for them? Will Saudi Arabia prefer to hire Pakistanis rather than Indians? Unlikely, but can you rule it out entirely?
India has a close strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia. But could that alter hereafter? We don’t know. On the other hand, India has a less-than-comfortable relationship with Türkiye. Turkish drones were part of Pakistan’s armoury during Operation Sindoor. Türkiye’s support for Pakistan on Kashmir is well-known. Could this relationship become more awkward and tenuous?
However, there’s one area where India could benefit. It’s no secret that Saudi-Emirati and Emirati-Pakistani relations are tense. In contrast, India has a particularly trusting relationship with Abu Dhabi. Could this defence pact drive India and the UAE closer together? That’s a possibility.
Finally, the Trump White House has welcomed the pact because it’s in line with its wishes to see its allies take greater responsibility for their security. We don’t know China’s response. It’s unlikely to differ with what Pakistan has done. The first offers little comfort. The second could only add to our concerns.
Karan Thapar is the author of Devil’s Advocate: The Untold Story. The views expressed are personal
