A below-normal monsoon forecast across parts of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is unlikely to reduce disaster risks, with scientists warning that short bursts of intense rainfall, extreme heat and growing water stress could impact people across large parts of the region.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Monsoon Outlook 2026, released on Thursday, projected lower-than-normal rainfall across several countries, including Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, alongside above-normal temperatures across much of the region.
“The outlook gives disaster management authorities a critical window to prepare,” Team Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience at Palladium India, Navneet Yadav, said.
Experts cautioned that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high. “Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern. Communities and authorities need to closely follow short-term forecasts and advisories,” International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) hydrologist Manish Shrestha said.
The combination of erratic rainfall and rising temperatures is expected to increase both drought and flood risks during the same season. Long dry spells may be followed by sudden heavy downpours, creating conditions for flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountain areas, the analysis said.
Warmer conditions are also likely to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability. Lower snow persistence at the start of the season further weakens the region’s natural water buffer, making river systems and groundwater recharge more sensitive to rainfall variability.
“Lower snow persistence means the region is entering the monsoon with a reduced seasonal water buffer,” co-author of the outlook Sarthak Shrestha said.
The outlook highlights increasing pressure on food production, water resources and energy systems, as well as heightened vulnerability in both rural and urban areas.
With climate variability increasing, experts warn that preparing for a single type of hazard is no longer sufficient.
HT reported on Thursday that El Niño — the Pacific warming pattern that weakens India’s monsoon and drives harsh summers — is now underway, according to Japan’s meteorological agency, a declaration that puts India’s weather establishment on notice as the rain-bearing season struggles to establish itself.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said conditions characteristic of El Niño have been observed in both the ocean and atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific, and that an event is currently underway. India’s own meteorological department has not yet made the same declaration, but the threshold is close. “We will issue a statement soon based on the models we consult, on the onset of El Nino conditions,” said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
On Thursday, IMD said the southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the remaining parts of Tamil Nadu, some more parts of West Bengal and parts of Bihar. Under the influence of a western disturbance, a wet spell is likely over northwest India till June 13, with the possibility of thunderstorms accompanied by gusty winds (50-60 kmph) and hailstorms on June 11 and 12.
Conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of the central Arabian Sea and Maharashtra, the remaining parts of Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the west-central and northwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of West Bengal and Bihar, and parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh during the next two to three days.
There is a 26% rainfall deficiency across the country between June 1 and June 10, with a 39% deficiency over east and northeast India, a 10% deficiency over northwest India, a 45% deficiency over central India, and a 3% excess over south peninsular India.
