Nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI), including the development of bioweapons, are among the threats that could potentially lead to human extinction by 2100, according to a report called The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health, released by the general medical journal.
The study placed these dangers in the highest category of a pyramid ranking hundreds of potential threats to humanity, including diseases, injuries, socioeconomic drivers and other risks. The category comprises threats considered capable of causing human extinction by the end of the century.
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The malicious use of AI, particularly its potential role in developing bioweapons, has been identified alongside nuclear conflict as an existential threat. Nuclear conflict could have devastating consequences extending beyond immediate casualties, including the possibility of nuclear famine, while the misuse of AI could introduce new dangers through its application in the development of biological weapons, the study said.
The commission’s framework categorises threats according to their potential scale of harm, placing human extinction risks at the top of the pyramid, followed by major catastrophic threats, major risks and causes, and the wider threat landscape.
“We divided hundreds of potential threats (diseases, injuries, socioeconomic drivers, and other threats) into a pyramid of threats with four categories: threats with the potential to lead to human extinction by 2100, major catastrophic threats, major risks and causes, and the wider threat landscape (figure 1). Threats with extinction potential, which represent the first category of the pyramid, include nuclear conflict with nuclear famine and the malicious use of AI, including bioweapons development,” the report read.
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The study distinguished these existential threats from 15 major catastrophic threats that could cause extensive harm to human health and societies. These include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate change, the collapse of development assistance for health, conventional conflict, high alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics not enabled by AI, obesity, poor mental health, smoking and unhealthy ageing.
