The United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC comes at a moment when the war in West Asia has already pushed oil markets into crisis and made the Strait of Hormuz the main driver of prices. That is why the immediate market reaction has been muted. The longer-term question is different: what happens to a cartel whose share of world crude production has been falling, and which has now lost one of the few members with the capacity and incentive to pump more?
