International
oi-Prakash KL
Global crude oil prices traded lower on Friday as the fears of a major supply disruption in the Middle East have started vanishing following an interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
The Iran-US deal has improved shipping activity through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, prompting traders to reassess the risk premium that had been built into oil prices during the recent conflict.
Global crude oil prices dipped Friday, with Brent below $80, as a US-Iran interim peace deal eased Middle East supply disruption fears, improving Strait of Hormuz shipping and potentially increasing market supply from delayed cargoes.
Crude Oil Price Today – June 19
Brent crude futures fell below the $80-a-barrel mark, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also traded lower. Market sentiment has shifted dramatically over the past few weeks, with investors moving from concerns about a severe supply crunch to expectations of a surge in oil availability.
Early trading data showed Brent crude at around $79 per barrel, down nearly 1 per cent from the previous session. WTI crude also declined to around $75 per barrel. Several other benchmark grades, including the OPEC Basket and India’s crude basket, registered modest losses, reflecting the broader weakness across energy markets.
The latest decline follows a sharp rally witnessed during the height of the US-Iran conflict. Crude prices had surged after military strikes involving the United States and Israel triggered fears of disruptions to oil shipments from the Gulf region. During the peak of the tensions, Brent crude reportedly climbed from around $70 per barrel to more than $126 per barrel as traders braced for a potential supply shock.
| Futures & Indexes | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 75.50 | -0.35 |
| Brent Crude | 79.45 | -0.40 |
| Murban Crude | 73.93 | -0.38 |
| Natural Gas | 3.202 | -0.031 |
| Gasoline | 2.980 | -0.015 |
| Heating Oil | 3.117 | -0.010 |
| WTI Midland | 77.06 | +0.16 |
| Mars | 89.15 | -0.12 |
| Opec Basket | 83.74 | -0.69 |
| DME Oman | 73.87 | +1.63 |
| Mexican Basket | 73.72 | +0.67 |
| Indian Basket | 78.48 | -0.18 |
| Urals | 64.54 | +0.38 |
| Western Canadian Select | 64.44 | +0.74 |
| AECO C natural gas | 1.250 | -0.010 |
| Dubai | 81.30 | +0.64 |
| Brent Weighted Average | 79.62 | -0.86 |
| Louisiana Light | 81.32 | -4.96 |
| Domestic Swt. @ Cushing | 73.27 | +0.74 |
| Giddings | 67.02 | +0.74 |
| ANS West Coast | 89.69 | -3.81 |
| Gulf Coast HSFO | 75.43 | +0.03 |
| Ethanol | 1.860 | +0.025 |
| Dutch TTF Natural Gas | 14.26 | +0.02 |
| LNG Japan/Korea Marker | 18.78 | +0.00 |
However, the signing of a temporary peace accord has significantly altered market expectations. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints, has begun normalising. The waterway handles a substantial portion of global oil exports, and any disruption there has an immediate impact on international crude prices.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Gulf oil exports to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of July. The bank believes crude production across the region could recover fully by October if the current stability continues. Analysts estimate that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could increase significantly in the coming weeks, helping to restore normal supply conditions.
Adding to the downward pressure on prices is the prospect of a large volume of delayed crude entering the market. According to estimates from energy analytics firm Kpler, more than 90 million barrels of non-Iranian crude and around 70 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently waiting to be shipped from the Gulf region. As export routes reopen and logistical bottlenecks ease, much of this oil is expected to reach international buyers.
The possibility of such a substantial increase in supply has raised concerns about oversupply in the global market. Traders are now closely monitoring export data, inventory levels and production trends to gauge how quickly the stored crude can be absorbed.
Despite the recent decline, oil prices remain above levels seen before the conflict began, indicating that some geopolitical risk premium still persists. Market participants will continue to watch developments in the Middle East, particularly the durability of the US-Iran agreement and the pace of export recovery through the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, easing geopolitical tensions and improving supply prospects have shifted the balance in favour of lower oil prices, offering relief to energy-importing nations and consumers worldwide.
