International
oi-Pankaj Mishra
As of now, this looks less like a solid peace deal and more like a temporary, conditional pause. The U.S., Iran and Israel have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, but the underlying disputes that triggered the conflict are not resolved – especially over Iran’s nuclear programme, missile capabilities, sanctions and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports say the two sides are still “far apart” on the terms of any permanent settlement.
A fragile two-week ceasefire agreed by the U.S., Iran, and Israel is seen as a temporary pause, strained by unresolved disputes including Iran’s nuclear program, Strait of Hormuz access, and disagreement over Lebanon strikes.
The biggest sign of fragility is disagreement over what the ceasefire actually covers. Pakistan, which helped mediate, initially said Lebanon was included. But Israel and the U.S. said Lebanon was not covered, and Israeli strikes on Lebanon continued, resulting in heavy casualties. Iran is treating those strikes as a serious breach, and its officials have said that under such conditions, talks on a permanent peace deal become “unreasonable.”
Trump’s latest message also suggests Washington sees this as a coercive holding pattern, not a settled peace. He said U.S. military forces will remain deployed “in and around Iran” until the “real agreement” is fully complied with, tying that to two core demands: no nuclear weapons and an open, safe Strait of Hormuz. That means the U.S. is signaling deterrence first, diplomacy second.
Still, diplomacy has not collapsed. An Iranian delegation is arriving in Islamabad for talks, which means both sides are still keeping a negotiating channel open. That is the main reason the ceasefire has not fully broken down yet.
Markets are reading it the same way: at first, oil fell sharply on the ceasefire news, but then prices rose back toward the upper-90s USD per barrel, as traders questioned whether the truce would hold and whether Hormuz would truly reopen normally. That rebound is a sign of low confidence in the ceasefire’s durability.
Bottom line
There is a ceasefire on paper, but it is fragile, conditional and already under strain. Right now, it looks more like a short tactical pause before hard bargaining, than a stable peace.
